Scenario Planning


Is a script like story of what the future might look like. It’s built around a hypothetical sequence of events, internal and external drivers

Strategic planning is frequently associated with things that are going easily.  A five year plan or 12 month plan gives an important guide – yet it misses the mark when things don't go as planned. Scenario planning is a calculated process that encourages you to get ready for vulnerability and strategically react to something that happens unexpectedly. Its main goal is to prepare your company for future challenges. This procedure compels you to "consider the possibility that" and afterward get ready for that envisioned time ahead. 

Define scenario? 

It can be considered like a script representing what the time ahead may resemble; it's consists of a theoretical placement of occurrences or circumstances and external and internal drivers. Dissecting these happenings and analyzing the relation linking them can help in distinguishing the procedures and choices that needs to be taken care of so that the organizations gets the proper support in case of challenges and problems in future.  

When should the scenario planning exercise be initiated? 

When the things are moving as planned, that time is best to carry out scenario planning exercise, as you have sufficient energy and time to analyze the future, but it is frequently an instrument used to react to an emergency be that loss of core staff member or loss of funding. Scenario planning was undertaken by Christian Aid as they realized that their customary 5 year technique planning was short to enable the association to foresee and acclimate the prolonged modifications in the condition that could affect their capacity to accomplish their goals. In the other case, Open House celebration embraced scenario planning since they realized that the format had turned out of date, and was not able to withstand the crowded marketplace. 
Hence, this can be initiated whenever and organization wants, however it is best used for forward planning as opposed to emergency management tool. 

How would you implement activities and results from a scenario planning exercise? 

This planning is just like creative thinking, unless it's actualized, and fixing and implementing it is critical to get this going. For scenario planning activity to be viable it should be implemented from the topmost level of the association, in the form of senior management it is imperative from the prior phases of the procedure. It additionally needs contribution from across association that provides services, from those that arrange them and those that help them monetarily. Also, this exercise must be reevaluated or re explored annually. 
Possible Event Planning
A Detailed Guide

1. Possible Event Question

What are the strategy questions that you would like to explore by doing an exercise like this?
Some of the questions that will lead to the framework of your question.
Do we need to bring in a new product, service or program
What will be the impact on the company from the latest technological developments
What if our main sponsors decide to withdraw
If we lose the sponsorship from corporations what would the effects be to the planned festival

2. Vital Events

You need to consider every scenario that could affect the company. Think of the bigger picture and of every scenario from flights being canceled to virus outbreaks such as swine flu.
Changes that happen due to politics - i.e new policies- cabinet reshuffle
Economics - recessions or other factors that might cause sponsors from withdrawing
Societal unrest - protests and strikes
Technology - mobile apps that are developed that interfere with your plans to reach out to the public
Legalities - new laws that might be introduced such as all organizing staff need to have first aid certificates
Weather constraints - unexpected weather conditions such as hurricanes, or higher than normal rain fall
The next step is to reviewing and assesses which competitor areas that you operate in could affect the work you are doing either directly or indirectly:
The audience
The customer base
The client base 
Known Competitors
Emerging Competitors

3. Putting the Vital Events Together

Start by changing the brainstorming into what could happen in the future realistically. Recognize some of the vital events that have been reviewed in section 2 and analyze what the result could be on your competitiveness
As an example: let’s say there was an outbreak of swine flu how would it affect the attendance due to quarantine restrictions. Could it affect your sponsorship with the corporations deciding to withdraw their support? 

4. Develop Event Arguments

Use the observations from the 3rd step and write down the different events like a script into story form and then consider a different role and responsibility of your team in this event.
Do the same for the associates that are not within your organization involved in this event like the police and venue organizers.

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